Abstract

In this paper we consider various methods of default forecasting to identify a model with the greatest predictive power on actual Russian data for the period from 2015 to 2016. For this purpose we developed early warning systems using traditional and modern methods: the panel random effects logit model, the panel pooled logit model and the random forest algorithm. The latter algorithm of machine learning has been applied for the analysis of the Russian banking sector for the first time. Our results show that the new machine learning forecasting tools have greater predictive power than the standard ones: a forecast based on the random forest model gives the lowest mean absolute error and correctly identifies the state of 99.62% of banks in the sample. Besides that, by analyzing estimated panel logit models, the paper determines the factors that make it possible to estimate the probability of bank’s bankruptcy based on the dynamics of its financial statements. Moreover, the influence of perceived factors preceding a default is in agreement with previous empirical results and reveals particular features of the Russian banking sector. Thus the results of the paper allow the advancement of the early warning systems of bank defaults, which can be used by commercial banks and monetary authorities to improve their activities.

Keywords: random forest, micro-prudential approach, bank failures, Russian banking sector, default, bankruptcy.

JEL: C51, C53, C33.

Elena V. SINELNIKOVA-MURYLEVA, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Taisija G. GORSHKOVA. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Natalja V. MAKEEVA. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

This article attempts to estimate the scale of state participation in the Russian economy in temporal dynamics and in comparison with other countries. Our unique methodology suggests a set of alternative approaches to measuring 3 independent components: stateowned enterprises (SOEs), state unitary enterprises and the public administration sector. Our results reveal growth of state involvement in the economy up to 46% of GDP in 2016. The share of SOEs and public administration in GDP rose from 20.2% and 16.9% in 2006 to 25.3% and 19.2% in 2016, respectively, by conservative estimates. A crosscountry comparison suggests that market capitalization, employment and SOEs’ share in GDP are significant and increasing. The share of public administration corresponds to the same estimate for OECD countries, but it is also increasing. The total state share and its growth can be evidence of an alarming trend for the Russian economy. It is 6–12% higher than the estimate for most developing countries and, unlike in China or India, it keeps growing. This leads to state expansion in the economy, growth of state influence on SOEs and a transfer of noneconomic risks to SOEs. Apart from increasing state involvement in added value creation, the state plays an active role in reallocation of financial resources, and there is some evidence that it is even more significant than the state share in creating added value measured by GDP.

Keywords: state ownership, state-owned enterprises, public administration sector, state share in GDP.

JEL: B20, D20, D60, G38, H82, H83, K40, L30, P20.

Alexander E. ABRAMOV, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Ivan V. AKSENOV, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Alexander D. RADYGIN, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Russian Presidential

Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation).

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Maria I. CHERNOVA. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy

and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

With the most relevant input-output table data for the Russian economy, the presented study considers and calculates the measure of Upstreamness, which reflects the average position of the industries in a representative value chain. The obtained values can be considered as intuitive in terms of industry position in global value chains, including the ranking of technologically closely related pairs of industries. The paper also demonstrates that the average positions of the industries in a representative value chain calculated using input-output table data from different countries are largely comparable, indicating that the Upstreamness measure is universal to some extent, regardless of the country of origin of the goods. Calculated Upstreamness was used to show the main trends of Russian foreign trade in terms of position in global value chains. In particular, it is shown that the Russian economy in the last 3–4 years has tended to change the structure of exports in favor of more final products, and the structure of imports in favor of less final products. This fact can be interpreted as expansion of the Russian economy’s participation in global value chains. Despite this, the structure of Russian exports is still significantly different from the structure of exports of comparable countries. On the contrary, the structure of Russian imports can be viewed as generally consistent with the import structure of many developed countries. The calculated Upstreamness measure may have various applications in empirical studies of the Russian economy.

Keywords: export, import, foreign trade, value chains, input-output tables, Upstreamness.

JEL: L23, F14.

Dmitry E. KUZNETSOV. Center for International Trade Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Russian Foreign Trade Academy (4a, Pudovkina ul., Moscow, 119285, Russian Federation).

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Vladimir V. SEDALISHCHEV, Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.). Center for International Trade Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Russian Foreign Trade Academy (4a, Pudovkina ul., Moscow, 119285, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The article provides an overview of the historical development of industrial policy in the Russian pharmaceutical industry – from the Soviet era trends to the current state and the key directions of further development. The goals, objectives and tools of public policy are presented for three distinct periods: the 1990s, 2000–2008 and from 2009 to the present. For the period of the 1990s the causes and nature of the industry's decline are explained, the main failures and losses are described. For the years 2000–2008 the paper indicates the mechanisms of production revival. The transition to active participation of the state in the development of the industry is addressed. For the period from 2009, the mechanisms of an active industrial policy are described and evaluated. Import substitution in the industry, general industrial policy and technological policy are explained. The paper provides information on key financial support instruments: subsidies, loans from the Industrial Development Fund etc. The key elements of the technological policy are described: support of biotechnologies, development of clusters and technological platforms. Considering the achieved results, key benchmarks, perspective directions and priorities are proposed for the middle-term and long-term public funding: investments in the creation and modernization of production, demand for domesticт products considering the changing consumption structure, and exports of domestic products against the dynamically changing world markets. It is stated that in 2018 the Government of the Russian Federation is planning to adjust its development strategies for the pharmaceutical and medical industries.

Keywords: industrial policy, import substitution, pharmaceutical industry.

JEL: L52.

Denis V. MANTUROV, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Minister. Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation (7, Kitaygorodskiy proezd, Moscow, 109074, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The Platon system — payment for tons — was introduced in the Russian Federation at the end of 2015 for trucks. The article examines the effectiveness of this system of payments in specific Russian conditions. The author analyzes the theoretical approaches to the assessment of the external effects of motor transport, including cargo transport, generalizes foreign experience in regulating road transport, and estimates the first practical results of the functioning of the Platon system. It is shown that freight transport performs important socially useful work — therefore, from the point of view of effective resource allocation, internalization of external effects of freight transport is acceptable only at a level that does not lead to significant negative consequences in the economy. Only some logistical optimization of cargo transportation is possible with a view to reorienting cargo flows to modes of transport having lower social costs (water, rail). The experience of foreign countries shows that the success of regulating the road freight market is determined by whether specific economic and social conditions in the country are fully taken into account. The paper analyzes the arguments for and against the introduction of this fee in the conditions of modern Russia. The impact of the system on the budgetary process, the freight market and commodity markets in our country is estimated. It is shown that the introduction of the Platon system in the current Russian conditions does not contribute to the achievement of the declared goals, but rather acts as a destabilizing factor.

Keywords: road transport externalities, freight transport externalities, internalization of road transport externalities, road transport regulation, Platon system.

JEL: R40, R48.

Irina Yu. KHOVAVKO, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor. Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University (1–46, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

Recently, both in the media and in the scientific community, the issues of development and improvement of the system of vocational education have been widely discussed. In 2015, about a third of young people in Russia aged 15–19 years were enrolled in the system of vocational education. At the same time, the process and results of the system of vocational education are highly contradictory. Since 2014, the Center for Economics of Lifelong Learning at the Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration has been monitoring the youth labor market problems. This article uses fieldwork collected in the three regions of the Russian Federation by the Center for Economics of Lifelong Learning in 2016 and the results of a statistical survey of youth employment by the Federal State Statistics Service in 2016. The results of the monitoring made it possible to identify the main problems that graduates of the system of vocational education face in finding employment. Graduates of the system of vocational education find a job rather quickly. The main reasons both hindering employment and forcing people to change jobs are lack of work experience (at the first job); low level of wages; incompliance of the conditions proposed by the employer with the requirements of the employed; absence of vacancies within the profession. A number of key results are considered in the article.

Keywords: education, transition to employment, youth in employment.

JEL: I21, I25, I26.

Tatiana L. KLYACHKO, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Center for Economics of

Life long Learning, Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential

Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Elena A. SEMIONOVA, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Center for Economics of Lifelong

Learning, Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential

Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The subject of this article is the problem of optimization of courts in the conditions of an increasing number of applications and limited resources that do not allow coping with the growing and often excessive volume of judicial work. In order to model a rational modern judicial organization, which excludes imbalance and excessive load of courts, the work widely uses economic approaches related to redistribution of judicial resources, including judicial personnel and judicial budget. The purpose of the paper is to develop and substantiate the main provisions of the theory of judicial economy related to optimal distribution of limited resources of the judicial system (personnel; financial, material and technical resources etc.). The authors come to the conclusion that the outlines of the modern system of federal courts of general jurisdiction in Russia formed in the 1960s and do not conform to modern realities. The organization of the Russian judicial system at the present time does not correspond to the changed socio-demographic factors, the need to create high-tech ‘electronic courts’ and concentration of resources, the specialization of judges, and trends in transport accessibility. Under these circumstances and in the context of a shortage of the judicial budget, it is necessary to create legal mechanisms aimed at effective management of limited judicial resources, including the definition of judicial burden, the optimization of the number of courts and judicial personnel, and the enlargement of judicial areas.

Keywords: distribution of judicial resources, judicial load, optimization of courts.

JEL: H60, H80, K40, K41, Z18.

Elena V. BURDINA, Dr. Sci. (Law). Russian State University of Justice (69, Novocheremushkinskaya ul., Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation).

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Nikolai A. PETUHOV, Dr. Sci. (Law), Professor. Russian State University of Justice (69, Novocheremushkinskaya ul., Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The article deals with the systematization of the key differences between orthodox and heterodox economics. An analysis based on the data of the author’s 2016 sociological survey of the Russian community of academic economists reveals that the majority of its members are heterodox economists. Furthermore, this analysis finds that Russian and foreign non-orthodox economists have one thing in common: very vague knowledge of current trends within modern mainstream economics. The author has shown that further development of heterodox economics will face serious challenges. On the one hand, many heterodox economists, instead of cooperating with the increasingly pluralistic mainstream, are involved in its severe criticism. On the other hand, certain narrow-minded mainstream economists try to hinder growth in disciplinary autonomy of heterodox economics. Taken together, these tendencies are impeding the improvement of analytical methods of heterodox economics and leading to efforts being squandered on the struggle with the mainstream, thereby preventing development of heterodox concepts. From the author’s point of view, there can be identified two key trajectories of the future heterodox economics growth. The first one implies the integration of heterodox economic thought into the mainstream through its mathematization. The second scenario assumes economic heterodoxy moving from the subject field of economics into the sphere of other social sciences. The author believes that, regardless of the potential strategy, heterodox economists should focus their scientific work not on the caricaturization of the mainstream, which is becoming more and more open to unconventional ideas, but on the revision and creation of new non-orthodox economic concepts.

Keywords: heterodox economic theory, mainstream, Russian community of economists, economic thought.

JEL: B10, B50.

Alexander A. MALTSEV, Doc. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor. Department of World Economy, Ural State University of Economics (62, 8 Marta ul., Ekaterinburg, 620144, Russian Federation).

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Andrey P. ZAOSTROVTSEV, Cand. Sci. (Eсon.). The International Center of Social and Economic Research (ICSER) “Leontief Centre” (25, 7-ya Krasnoarmeyskaya ul., Saint Petersburg, 190005, Russian Federation).

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