Abstract

The 2015 Paris climate accord (Paris Agreement) is meant to control our planet’s rising temperature to limit climate change. But it may be doing the opposite in permitting a slow phase-in of CO2  emission mitigation. The accord asks its 195 national signatories to specify their emission reductions and to raise those contributions over time. However, there is no mechanism to enforce these pledges. This said, the accord puts dirty energy producers on notice that their days are numbered. Unfortunately, this “use it or lose it” message may accelerate the extraction and sale of fossil fuels and, thereby, permanently worsen climate change. Our paper uses a simple OLG model to illustrate this long-noted, highly troubling Green Paradox. Its framework properly treats climate damage as a negative externality imposed by today’s generations on tomorrow’s—an externality that is, in part, irreversible and, if large enough, can tip the climate to a permanently bad state. Our paper shows that delaying abatement can be worse than doing nothing. Indeed, it can make all generations worse off. In contrast, immediate policy action can make all generations better off. Finally, we question the standard use of infinitely lived, single-agent models to determine optimal abatement policy. Intergenerational altruism underlies such models. But its assumption lacks empirical support. Moreover, were such altruism widespread, effective limits on CO 2 emissions would, presumably, already be in place. Unfortunately, optimal abatement prescriptions derived from such models can differ, potentially dramatically, from those actually needed to correct the negative climate externality that today’s generations are imposing on tomorrow’s.

Keywords: climate change, Paris Accord, CO 2 emissions, overlapping generations, CO 2 taxes, green paradox.

JEL: F0, F20, H0, H2, H3, J20.

Laurence J. Kotlikoff PhD (Econ.). Department of Economics, Boston University (270 Bay State Road, Boston, MA 02215, USA); National Bureau of Economic Research (1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation).

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Andrey V. Polbin Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., 119571, Moscow, Russian Federation); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, Gazetny per., 125009, Moscow, Russian Federation).

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Andrey V. Zubarev Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

On October 1, 2019, the Multilateral Convention to Implement Tax Treaty Related Measures to Prevent Base Erosion and Profit Shifting entered into force with respect to the Russian Federation. The main purpose of the MLI is to establish minimum standards for combating international tax avoidance. The MLI will extend the key approaches of the BEPS plan at once to a large number of bilateral double tax treaties. The application of the MLI is expected from January 1, 2021 in relation to a number of tax treaties concluded by the Russian Federation. At the same time, certain provisions of the MLI leave some questions about their application and may cause new problems for the taxpayers and tax authorities. In the short term, the application of a number of MLI provisions may be expected to increase uncertainty in international tax planning and lead to an increase in the number of disputes over tax treaties. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the key provisions of the MLI and identify possible problems of their enforcement for the subsequent analysis of potential ways to overcome the legal uncertainty of the application of the MLI. To this end, the tasks were set to study the goal of adopting the MLI, and analyze the content and procedure for the application of the MLI, as well as the content of the key standard of the MLI—the principal purpose test. Identifying the problems of law enforcement before the start of active use of the MLI is important, since it would allow one to pay attention to possible problems at an earlier stage and quickly move to their resolution, which would contribute to the formation of a higher level of legal certainty in the field of international tax planning and further development of foreign economic cooperation.

Keywords: international tax law, Multilateral Instrument, MLI, anti-avoidance, principal purpose test, tax certainty, international cooperation.

JEL: K34, H20, H26, E62.

Daria Ya. Podshivalova. MGIMO University (76, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119454, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The article is dedicated to the analysis of the approved strategies for sustainable mobility (sustainable transport) in the world’s leading cities. It is shown that most strategic documents contain similar principles and goals that determine the transformation vectors for cities. The fundamental principles include hierarchy of priorities (not only financial, but also in terms of equitable distribution of urban space, starting from pedestrian and bicycle mobility and public transport and ending with parking); increasing ecomobility, involving the “80:20” principle (fixing the goal of bringing the share of sustainable modes of mobility to 80% and decreasing the share of cars to 20% by 2030); “healthy streets, healthy people” and “complete streets” (reformatting car-oriented streets into bicycle and pedestrian spaces, administrative restrictions for cars, internalization of externalities); development of environmentally friendly high-speed rail public transport and the creation of preferential access rights for public transport; Vision Zero (zero tolerance for road accidents); compactness, polycentricity, and transit-oriented development; smart transport and multimodality; consideration of the transport system as one of the integral parts of the city’s stability (holistic view), etc. It is determined that the analyzed mobility strategies organically integrate into the general trajectory of sustainable long-term development and promotion of real human wellbeing. Most strategies focus on personal experience of their beneficiaries, which lies at the heart of any reform (people-centered approach). An additional benefit resulting from the implementation of sustainable mobility strategies is lower density and safer distancing within cities, which is highly relevant in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as reduced freight prices and development of a more just and secure city environment.

Keywords: sustainable mobility, sustainable transport, transit­oriented development, compact city, “healthy streets”,     "complete streets”, Vision Zero, COVID­19 pandemic.

JEL: B52, R40.

Vladimir M. Komarov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation (12, Akademika Sakharova pr., Moscow, 107078, Russian Federation).

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Varvara V. Akimova, Cand. Sci. (Geogr.). Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Lomonosov Moscow State University (1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119234, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The review is devoted to the book by 2019 Nobel laureates in Economics Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee, published in Russian by the Gaidar Institute Publishing House in 2021. Building upon the crisis of confidence in economists, the authors in the microeconomic plane reflect upon a set of effective tools for combating poverty in economic science. The book focuses on the following topics: trust, migration, trade, economic growth, technological progress, the role of the state in the economy, and basic income. Duflo and Banerjee consider real situations within the framework of these topics, using the method of natural experiments, in order to show the inconsistency and lack of fundamental basis in numerous stereotypes of economic policy. Technological progress is useful for high-tech industries in terms of creating jobs and saving public funds, but for the rest of the labor market it may destroy jobs and lead to increasing social insecurity of citizens with low incomes. It is the consideration of the program theses of economic science on trust, migration, trade, technological progress and welfare from the perspective of socially vulnerable population segments that determines the uniqueness of the study. Since the work touches on disparate areas, it also has a number of drawbacks, which are mentioned in the review. In particular, the idea of a natural experiment is not followed by a political economy generalization, which is a disadvantage of the work.

Keywords: trust, labor migration, international trade, economic growth, basic income.

JEL: A11, D31, E60, F14, I14.

Kirill A. Kushnarev. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics (36, Stremyanny per., Moscow, 115054, Russian Federation).

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