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Latest Issue № 6, 2020



Archive / 2020

№ 4

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MACROECONOMICS

pdfSergey DROBYSHEVSKY, Pavel TRUNIN, Elena SINELNIKOVA-MURYLEVA, Natalja MAKEEVA, Alina GREBENKINA

8-29

 

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of optimality of the Bank of Russia’s inflation target. It considers the theoretical framework of optimal inflation, international practice of inflation target setting, and econometric estimates. The paper summarizes the theoretical mechanisms of optimality of zero or positive inflation and concludes that there are a significant number of mechanisms leading to optimality of positive inflation in the literature. Further, the countries’ experience of inflation targeting is analyzed, and the value of the inflation target and the frequency of its revision in Russia, developed countries and emerging market economies are compared. The article also provides the authors’ estimates of optimal inflation based on the application of the panel threshold regression method for four groups of countries, including Russia, for the period 1990–2018: the largest emerging market economies; emerging market economies with export as a key source of income; post-Soviet countries; and countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The study provides some empirical evidence in favor of the optimal inflation rate varying from 3.5% to 4% for homogeneous samples of countries, including Russia. The results also show that low inflation (up to the threshold level equal to the inflation target in Russia) is associated with economic growth. The study concludes that the current inflation target in Russia is valid and provides some suggestions regarding further improvements of inflation targeting policy in Russia.

Keywords: optimal inflation, monetary policy, panel threshold regression, countries comparative analysis.

JEL: C23, E31, E52, O57.

Sergey M. Drobyshevsky, Dr. Sci. (Econ.). Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation); Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Pavel V. Trunin, Dr. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation).

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Elena V. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Natalja V. Makeeva. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Alina M. Grebenkina. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation);

Lomonosov Moscow State University (1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation).

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pdfIvan DAROVSKII

30-61

 

Abstract

This article studies the impact of banking supervision on the Russian banking sector structure. The article also discusses the main challenges facing the banking system and the macroeconomic role of the Bank of Russia’s supervisory policy. Taking into account some features of the national banking sector, the author justifies the current strict banking supervision despite all possible short- and longterm negative effects of this policy. For example, static and dynamic estimates of the competition level in the Russian banking sector, which were obtained using structural and non-structural methods, show a low competition level. A noncompetitive banking industry increases costs in the economy and exacerbates existing imbalances. For this reason, the paper considers key measures that contribute to the development of banking competition. The article emphasizes the great importance of the goals of building a full three-tier banking system and privatization of public sector banks. However, strict banking supervision and consolidation of the banking industry have reduced the impact of negative factors on the supply of loans and increased the Russian banking sector’s sustainability. These positive changes and macroeconomic reform provide the basis for stable economic growth. The main results obtained can be used by national authorities to develop the Russian banking system.

Keywords: banking supervision, consolidation of the banking industry, concentration level, Herfindahl—Hirschman index, competition, Panzar—Rosse model, lending, macroeconomic stability.

JEL: E32, E58, G21, G28, L16.

Ivan Ya. Darovskii. Department of Economics, European University at St. Petersburg (6/1A, Gagarinskaya ul., Saint Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation).

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DEMOGRAPHY AND LABOR MARKET

pdfVictor LYASHOK, Tatiana MALEVA, Marina LOPATINA

62-87

 

Abstract

The article is devoted to the review of theoretical and applied studies on the impact of technological progress on the labor market and public policy. Firstly, the influence of previous industrial revolutions is considered. It is shown that new technologies during the last two centuries have been resulting in growth of employment and reduction of working hours. In addition, mass computerization observed in the past few decades has led to polarization of the labor market. Secondly, the concept of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is analyzed. It is pointed out that, despite active discussion of this topic in the mass media and in the expert community, so far the results of the former have been limited and the latest technologies related to it are poorly distributed even in the most developed countries. However, studies devoted to quantitative estimates of automation and labor substitution have a highly controversial methodology. As a result, the majority of alarmist predictions are deemed unfounded. Various studies have indicated that the more likely response to the new technological revolution is not an increase in unemployment, but rather a spread of non-standard employment. Finally, changes in government labor market policy due to technological innovations of recent years are investigated. Despite the persistent intentions to reform the fundamental labor market policies, European employment services continue to apply a standard set of practices. The data available for Russia indicate that the risks of automation and significant changes on the labor market are even lower than in developed countries.

Keywords: technological advances, labor market, technological unemployment, working time, labor market policy, labor market polarization.

JEL: E24, J20, J46.

Victor Yu. Lyashok, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Financial Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (3, str. 2, Nastas’inskiy per., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation).

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Tatiana M. Maleva, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), DBA. Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Marina V. Lopatina. Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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pdfNatalia ROZINSKAYA, Ivan ROZINSKIY

88-109

 

Abstract

The paper deals with the analysis of Ukrainian migration into Russia, which has been remaining an important factor in Russia’s development during the post- Soviet period. Attraction of migrants with cultural characteristics similar to the native population makes it possible to simultaneously pursue two targets: promoting economic growth and preserving the nation’s cultural identity. Migrants from Ukraine are currently the only substantial source of potential migration into Russia that does not provoke a negative attitude among the Russian people. The paper provides an analysis of the main geographical directions of Ukrainian migration into Russia during the past eight years. These directions have proved to be resilient in spite of substantial changes of the socioeconomic conditions in both countries. It is shown that the “Ukrainian stream” demonstrates features common to international migration in other countries, at the same time having certain specifics, e.g. leaning toward big cities of the Russian South-West. The authors examine the distribution of migrants among the federal districts of Russia as well as among administrative centers and rural areas of receiving regions. The Ukrainian migration stream is considered to be the object of competition between Russian and Polish economic centers of gravity. In order for Russia to win in such a competition, the authors propose not to set an unrealistic goal of attracting Ukrainian migrants to the sparsely populated regions of Russia (e.g. the Far East), but rather to promote migration into regions which have already demonstrated their attractiveness for them, namely Belgorod, Voronezh and Krasnodar. In stimulating migration into these regions particular emphasis is to be made on the attraction of the Ukrainian youth, especially students. For that purpose, special programs targeting Ukrainian students should be elaborated at the universities of the Russian South-West.

Keywords: migration, regional development, climate, migration profile.

JEL: J61, J88, P25, R23, R58.

Natalia A. Rozinskaya, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Lomonosov Moscow State University (1–46, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation).

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Ivan A. Rozinskiy, Dr. Sci. (Econ.). Independent researcher (15/25, 23, ul. Sivtsev Vrazhek, Moscow, 119002, Russian Federation).

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INDUSRTIAL ECONOMICS

pdfKaren TUMANYANTS

110-137

 

Abstract

This study assesses how the Russian household welfare rate impacts electricity consumption volume. Modeling of Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) data provided by the Higher School of Economics (HSE) has revealed a heterogeneous dependency between average per capita family income and electricity consumption volume. Electricity demand is not elastic among both urban and countryside residents. However, urban consumption is better described by a linear function, while rural consumption is better described by a quadratic function. The electricity tariff is not statistically significant for urban residents, whereas the price elasticity of electricity consumption for rural residents is close to 1. Application of lifeline rates for electricity tariffs in certain regions did not affect the level of elasticity of consumption by income, but some anomalies have been identified that indicate forced savings of electricity in order to pay for it at a minimum price. The study provides a divided quantitative assessment of influence of some non-income determinants on electricity demand among urban and countryside residents: number and age of family members, residential property area etc. The conclusion deems increasing block tariffs unreasonable because higher electricity tariffs may affect low-income groups thus raising the national poverty rate. If the cross subsidization problem in Russia is nevertheless addressed by imposing increasing block tariffs, the number of blocks and, respectively, prices must be more than two, while threshold consumption volumes should be estimated taking into account non-income determinants on different levels for different social groups.

Keywords: cross-subsidies, income residential demand elasticities, electricity, increasing block tariffs, lifeline rate.

JEL: D12, L94.

Karen A. Tumanyants, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Volgograd State University (100, Universitetskiy pr., Volgograd, 400062, Russian Federation).

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TRANSPORT ECONOMICS

pdfYurii EZROKH

138-163

 

Abstract

The domestic passenger taxi market at the present stage is characterized by significant scale and dynamics as well as an important role in ensuring transport accessibility. At the same time, it is at a much earlier stage of development in comparison with many foreign countries, which is largely due to the lack of state regulation at the legislative and executive levels. The article is devoted to the development of state regulation of the Russian passenger taxi market aimed at overcoming the accumulated problems in its functioning. The methodological base of the research includes theoretical provisions of strategic management, modern concepts of public administration, and a problem-oriented approach. The study has revealed six groups of problems in the functioning of the passenger taxi market in modern Russia: “erosion” of responsibility to consumers for the provision of taxi services and shifting thereof from the backbone entities of the taxi market to less stable participants; low development level of the passenger taxi market’s material component, i.e. motor transport fleet; absence of an efficiently operating infrastructure of the taxi market that controls and develops labor resources; low level of personal safety of taxi drivers and passengers; predominance of dumping schemes used by taxi aggregators to expand the geography of service provision, which leads to market monopolization; and low tax collection due to a lack of transparency in the market as well as the difficulty of implementing effective tax control. To minimize these problems, strategic recommendations are substantiated within the framework of improving the state regulation of the relevant market.

Keywords: taxi problems, taxi services, taxi control, taxi supervision, private transportation.

JEL: I28, L92, R41.

Yurii S. Ezrokh, Dr. Sci. (Econ.). Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management (56, Kamenskaya ul., Novosibirsk, 630099, Russian Federation).

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