Abstract

Argentina and South Korea are oft en used to exemplify, respectively, an exceptional episode of economic failure and a rare developmental success story of the second half of the 20th century. As it is argued in the literature, the main reasons for the economic downfall of Argentina were excessive state intervention and regulation. The authors of this article, however, presume that these were rather unsuccessful policies than fundamental problems of the Argentine economy. The level of economic complexity of Argentina was traditionally low, which was a result of an underdeveloped system of mass education and relatively sparse technology adoption. Without serious efforts to diversify its exports and increase its level of economic complexity, this country had little chance to stay among the world’s richest economies. That these efforts did not succeed in bringing about a higher level of economic complexity in Argentina did not, at the same time, imply that they were the main reason of its long-term economic stagnation. In this paper, the authors use the economic complexity theory framework to describe the development story of the Argentine economy in the second half of the 20th century in terms of economic complexity and export diversification. The authors show that this country’s efforts to develop its industry have resulted only in a minor increase in its level of economic complexity, especially if East Asian economic miracle stories—the one of South Korea in particular—are used as a reference point. The main reasons of this result include a slow pace of human capital accumulation in Argentina. This makes an immense contrast with the vast expansion of secondary and tertiary education in South Korea. Challenges of the Korean government’s new industrial policy in the mid-60s and gradual economic diversification stimulated a large-scale education reform, which made South Korea one of the most prominent high-tech economies of the modern world.

Keywords: economic complexity, export diversifi cation, education, human capital.

JEL: O100, O140, O180, F10, F14.

Ivan L. Lyubimov, PhD (Econ.). Department for International Trade Studies, Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84/9, pr. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Maria V. Kazakova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84/9, pr. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Center for Macroeconomics and Finance, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (str. 1, 3–5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation).

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Margarita A. Gvozdeva. Department for Macroeconomic Studies, Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84/9, pr. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Aigerim G. Ospanova. MS in Applied Economics.

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Abstract

Demographic cycles are a fundamental mechanism for reproducing the population and regulating the number of inhabitants. The article simulates the medium-term birth cycles of the Russian population in the changing socio-economic conditions of the post-war period (1946–2017), and their interaction with the total fertility rate. The proposed mathematical model describes the cyclical demographic dynamics, distinguishing the fundamental endogenous factors from exogenousones and random phenomena. The authors apply a technique based on a combination of trigonometric approximation methods using finite Fourier series, adapted for the considered problems, and stepwise regression for model identification and optimization. Models for the entire, urban, and rural population during a specified period and in shorter periods of time are examined. It has been established that the frequency of the series of the number of births is associated with both the duration of women’s fertile age and the duration of entry into it. The results of the study show that the current demographic decline has an endogenous nature. The cycle lasts an average of 30 years, with the downward phase indicating the exhaustion of fertility growth resources within the current family model. A conclusion is made about the timeliness of additional measures of active demographic policy aimed at stimulating the birth rate, supporting large families and focused primarily on rural areas as well as small and medium-sized cities of Russia. However, the economy must adapt to demographic constraints.

Keywords: medium-term cycles, modeling, Fourier series, stepwise regression, fertility, urban and rural population.

JEL: R23, J11, C49.

Tatiana V. BLINOVA, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Institute of Agrarian Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences (94, Moskovskaya ul., Saratov, 410012, Russian Federation).

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Rudolph P. KUTENKOV, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Institute of Agrarian Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences (94, Moskovskaya ul., Saratov, 410012, Russian Federation).

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Viktor L. SHABANOV, Dr. Sci. (Soc.). Institute of Agrarian Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences (94, Moskovskaya ul., Saratov, 410012, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

In this paper the author analyzes the impact of immigration cohorts on the earnings differential between long-term immigrants and natives in Russia. The nationally representative data came from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for 2010–2015. The main methods of empirical analysis in the study are ordinary least squares regression and the random effects model. The obtained results show that long-term immigrants who moved to Russia in the 2000s earn less on average than natives and those who moved to the country in the 1990s. The findings can be explained by two main reasons. On the one hand, cohorts differ in length of the residence period in the country. It is expected that immigrants who moved to Russia in the 1990s have been living in the country for a longer time and could have gained more competence and skills required for the Russian labor market. This, in turn, may positively affect their earnings. On the other hand, the two groups are quite heterogeneous in terms of human capital. Immigrants from the later cohort are less educated, and the share of ethnic Russian respondents among them is also lower compared to those who moved to the country in the 1990s. Distinctions in human capital lead to differences in earnings between the two groups of immigrants.

Keywords: immigrants, earnings differential, labor market.

JEL: J15, J31, J61.

Evgeniya Yu. POLYAKOVA. Laboratory for Labour Market Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics (26, Shabolovka ul., Moscow, 119049, Russian Federation); Departments of Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Saint Petersburg (3, Kantemirovskaya ul., Saint Petersburg, 194100, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

This article discusses the key issues of legal regulation of the crypto economy in some countries (USA, Switzerland, France, Russia, Belarus, Israel, and the EU as a whole). Special attention is paid to the legal regulation of ICO as a way to attract foreign investments. The statements of regulatory authorities of different countries are considered; the existing practice of ICO project regulation and the current state of the primary token placement market are analyzed; the aspects of the extraterritorial effect of the U.S. securities legislation are studied, and so are thekey risks for the investor and the creator of an ICO project. A separate paragraphis devoted to the known methods used by law enforcement services (e.g. Europol)to fight money laundering and terrorism financing through criminal cryptocurrencytransactions. As a result of the analysis, taking into account the currentpractice of combating money laundering, recommendations are made to changethe relevant legislation. In addition, this article discusses the problems of legal uncertaintyregarding the taxation of crypto assets. The authors analyzed the currentlegal framework in the Russian Federation aimed at regulating the turnover ofcrypto assets. In particular, the bill on digital financial assets was considered. Theoverall conclusion of the study is that, in general, Russia today has the opportunityto become one of the leaders in the new market. Russia ranks second in the worldin the number of ICOs, and the country has launched a number of blockchainprojects that are popular around the globe.

Keywords: crypto economy, cryptocurrency, ICO, token, virtual currency, digital investments, crypto exchange.

JEL: K22, K33.

Antonina D. LEVASHENKO. RANEPA Russia-OECD Centre, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Ivan S. ERMOKHIN. RANEPA Russia-OECD Centre, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Alexandra A. KOVAL. RANEPA Russia-OECD Centre, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The paper contributes to empirical discussion of pros and contras of bankoriented vs. market-oriented fi nancial systems found in both theoretical and empirical literature. Following Beck’s and Levine’s methodological approach, we measure post-crisis shift s in financial structure ratios across the world; the research suggests that national financial systems in general tend to be biased toward stronger polarization. Some of them, however, shift toward market domination, while others (Russia being among them) turn to bank domination. International comparative studies prove that financial structure ratio is subject to variation over time, and both of its types may be sustainable in an enabling environment. Detailed empirical studies of Russia’s financial structure reveal both economic and policy origins of trend reverses from the bank orientation in the 1990s to the market orientation in 2001–2010 and back to the bank orientation after 2011. We argue that, for now, enhancing bank domination makes a poor contribution to general economic development due to the oligopolistic structure of the Russian banking sector and the resulting X-inefficiency. Nevertheless, the trend holds positive potential to mobilize liquidity from both households and firms, if properly supported by relevant policy measures. Deliberate structural policy with adequate allowance for complementarity of the two segments may efficiently upgrade the Russian financial system.

Keywords:bank-oriented, market-oriented, financial system, financial structure, bank assets, stock markets.

JEL:G01, G15, G21, E44.

Marina E. DOROSHENKO, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Department of Applied Institutional Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University (1–46, ul. Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119234, Russian Federation).

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Sergey K. DUBININ, Dr. Sci. (Econ.). Department of Finance and Credit, Lomonosov Moscow State University (1–46, ul. Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119234, Russian Federation); JSC VTB Capital (12, Presnenskaya nab., Moscow, 123112, Russian Federation).

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Anna S. LOLEIT, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Boston Consulting Group (6, ul. Gasheka, Moscow, 125047, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

This paper examines the influence of sociocultural factors of economic growth on economic development of the Russian regions. The article analyses the influence of various forms of social capital according to James Coleman (norms of trust between individuals, horizontal ties, social norms and values) on economic growth rates of the Russian regions. The paper uses an augmented neoclassical model of economic growth to test the hypotheses about the impact of the initial social capital distribution on the subsequent GRP growth rates in 2007–2016. Particular attention is paid to the selection of relevant tools for measuring the level of social capital of the Russian regions. The empirical specifications of the proposed theoretical model of regional economic growth were evaluated using the two-stage least squares regression (2SLS); the robustness check was carried out using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM). The results of econometric analysis show that the initial spatial distribution of generalized trust does not have a statistically signifi cant effect on economic development. At the same time, the activity of lobbying groups (Olson groups) reduces the rate of economic growth in the regions of the Russian Federation. Increasing the level of civic cooperation (the willingness of citizens to unite to solve their own or social problems in the region) is associated with higher rates of economic development. For the selected study period, the economic signifi cance of sociocultural factors is marginal relative to the significance of the fundamental neoclassical growth factors. Unlocking the potential of sociocultural factors of economic growth may suggest activating the processes of structural transformation of the Russian economy by increasing the economic importance of the private sector and SME segment.

Keywords: economic growth, regions of Russia, social capital.

JEL: O43, R11, E13.

Vladimir S. KOSAREV. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84–3, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).

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Pavel N. PAVLOV. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84–3, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Andrey S. KAUKIN, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The article is the study of such a phenomenon as institutional competition in the framework of a civilizational approach. An institution is described as a complex, composite category. Various approaches of modern authors to its definition and the divergence of their interpretations are revealed. The author of this article identifies informal institutions with culture, which is defined as rooted mass beliefs about a just social order. Formal institutions are ultimately determined by culture, but are not related to it. Civilizations, or social orders, are divided into two types: lawful and violent. The former is based on protected private property, whereas the latter represents the so-called power-property, when the state is the explicit or implicit supreme owner. Institutional competition between the lawful and violent civilizations implies competition for the replacement of one of the competing parties’ fundamental institutions with alternative institutions of the other. In this respect, it differs radically from institutional competition between countries of the same civilization type, where evolutionary selection of institutions occurs while maintaining a common institutional core. Modernization is a dual concept. On the one hand, it acts as westernization, i.e. the displacement of institutions of the violent civilization by its alternative. Completed westernization would mean, for one country or another, a change in the civilizational paradigm. On the other hand, countries belonging to the violent civilization hold back westernization, and resort to adaptive modernization in the form of organizational and technical improvements as well as controlled market transformations that do not destroy their institutional cores. In the 21st century, no rapprochement of civilizations can be observed: on the contrary, they are being alienated from each other.

Keywords:formal institutions, informal institutions, lawful civilization, violent civilization, duality of modernization, westernization, adaptation.

JEL:B20, B40, B41, B52.

Andrey P. ZAOSTROVTSEV, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). National Research University Higher School of Economics (16, Soyuza Pechatnikov ul., Saint Petersburg, 190121, Russian Federation); Center for Modernization Studies, European University at St. Petersburg (6/1, A, Gagarinskaya ul., Saint Petersburg, 191187, Russian Federation).

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