Abstract

Today most countries are experiencing fast population aging, which is going to last the entire 21st century. Its economic effects are multifarious and will in large part shape further dynamics of the global economy not only in the short or medium but also in the long run. Unfortunately, Russian economists and politicians are hardly aware of how diverse economic consequences of population aging are since their attention is focused on its narrow, purely pragmatic, dimensions (such as the raising of pension age, the deficit of the Russian Pension Fund etc.). The paper provides a broad overview of major economic effects of population aging from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. It examines the place of aging in the process of demographic transition, and forecasts its expected trends in subsequent decades for a few countries including Russia. Next, it critically reviews different versions of dependency/support ratios: demographic and economic; chronological and prospective; non-adjusted and adjusted for differences by age in labor income and per capita consumption. Special attention is paid to a basic scheme of relationships between key demographic and macroeconomic variables that highlights how population aging might affect employment, labor productivity, capital intensity, wages, returns to capital, investment and savings. Some additional effects are also analyzed, such as prospective changes in labor supply, human capital accumulation, technological change, real interest, and inflation. A general conclusion is that population aging is not per se a fundamental economic challenge that should endanger society’s welfare. Real dangers arise from existing institutions providing support for the elderly, which were established in the early to mid 20^th century under completely different demographic and economic conditions.

Keywords: demography, population aging, dependency ratios, consumption, saving, labor market, pension systems.

JEL: H55, J10, J11, J14, J21, J26.

Rostislav I. Kapeliushnikov, Corresponding Member of the RAS. Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS (23, Profsoyuznaya ul., Moscow, 117997, Russian Fede ration); Centre for Labour Market Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics (4/2, Slavyanskaya pl., Moscow, 103074, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

This article presents the findings of the first field experiment — a resume correspondence study — on age discrimination in the Russian labor market. Correspondence studies are nowadays viewed as the most objective way to test for hiring discrimination. This method consists of sending pairs of CVs for job offers, very similar in everything except the trait to be analyzed (age in our case). Data collection for the presented study was conducted in February—March 2018. Pairs of matched applications, one from a fictitious 29-year-old female applicant and one from afictitious 48-year-old female applicant, were sent to 341 employers with job openings for accountants in Moscow, posted on one of the most popular job search websites. It turned out that the probability of receiving an invitation for an interview for an older candidate is 24–32%, whereas for a younger candidate it is 45–52%. Thus, the positive callback ratio is 1.8–2.5. The indicator of “net discrimination”, calculated as the difference in the shares of positive callbacks in the number of vacancies for which at least one response has been received, is 37–49% for the younger and older candidates. Compared with the results of the existing studies, it turns out that the obtained discrimination level is quite high. Taking into account the population aging, a reduction in the workforce and an increase in the official retirement age, measures must be taken to combat age discrimination and allow older people to work on an equal basis with young people.

Keywords: ageism, age discrimination, discrimination in hiring, field experiment, correspondence study.

JEL: C93, J14, J71.

Ekaterina A. Klepikova. Faculty of Economic Sciences, National Research University Higher School of Economics (20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The article deals with the labor market status of men and women at pre-retirement and retirement age by educational attainment. The analysis is based on a statistic indicator developed by the author estimating the relative chance to be employed for a certain group of workers by educational attainment (CEE), split by age and sex, relative to the chances for employment of the workforce on average. Independence from the current level of unemployment is a distinctive feature of the proposed indicator. This ensures the correctness of its use without additional adjustments in international or cross-regional analysis as well as time series data analysis. The analysis revealed disparities in CEE for men and women of preretirement and retirement ages, women having the better chance to be employed.

Mark L. Agranovich, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Center for Monitoring and Statistics of Education, Federal Institute of Education Development, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (9, Chernyakhovskogo ul., Moscow, 125319, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The article gives an overview of the market microstructure approach, where modern financial infrastructure (trading, clearing and settlement) has for the first time become an object of dedicated research, contrary to traditional microeconomic models dealing with abstract demand, supply etc. apart from market realities. The market microstructure approach focuses on analysis of market frictions impacting on how new equilibriums are being come upon. Market frictions exist due to fragmented market structure and information asymmetries. Respectively, the article (Part 1) compares “market microstructure” and “market structure”; reveals drivers of spatial and temporal fragmentation (including breakdown of modern trading protocols and participation models); analyzes information (self-)learning of market and adverse selection; makes distinctions between “market quality”, “market efficiency” and “market liquidity”; and traces how the market efficiency and equilibrium concepts were evolving when market frictions drew attention. How the market microstructure approach may work is demonstrated in the course of a high-frequency trading (HFT) case study in Part 2 of the article. HFT has brought new evidence that market structure matters—both as an environment where tech innovations are only possible and as mechanisms to be adjusted to new challenges—and has outlined directions for further elaborations on basic microstructural concepts. The article associates HFT with market fragmentation, describes the impact of HFT on participation structure and market quality, summarizes predatory and similar practices of HFT and instruments to mitigate them, and clarifies the specifics of information asymmetry and adverse selection within the HFT framework.

Keywords: market microstructure, market structure, market quality, efficiency and liquidity, information asymmetry, high-frequency trading.

JEL: D01, D47, D53, D82.

Sergei I. Mayorov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Strategy Department, Moscow Exchange (13, Bol’shoy Kislovskiy per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation).

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Andrey A. Belykh, Dr. Sci. (Econ.). Laboratory for Research in Economic and Social History, Institute for Social Sciences, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, pr. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Evgeny Sh. Gontmakher, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. National Research University Higher School of Economics (3, Krivokolennyy per., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation); Primakov National Research Institute of Word Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (23, Profsoyuznaya ul., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation); Institute of Contemporary Development (12, Nauchnyy proezd, Moscow, 117246, Russian Federation).

Andrey P. Zaostrovtsev, Cand. Sci. (Eсon.). International Centre for Social and Economic Research (ICSER) “Leontief Centre” (25, 7-ya Kras noarmeуskaya ul., Saint Petersburg, 190005, Russian Federation).

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