Abstract

This article discusses the current challenges facing the Russian economy and the main

tasks that have to be accomplished in order to achieve the goals set by the May Decrees

of the President of the Russian Federation. The author emphasizes that ensuring the rates

of Russia’s economic growth above the world average rates within the next six years is

possible provided that a whole set of interrelated measures is developed and implemented.

These measures include, most importantly, mitigation of unfavorable demographic

conditions through reducing structural unemployment, increasing life expectancy, and

migration policy. At the same time, the article notes that an increase in labor supply

implies improving the living standards of the Russian population as well as favorable

conditions for development and realization of human potential. These conditions include

developed modern infrastructure, education and healthcare system, raising ecological

standards etc. Achieving a high level of development and sustainable long-term growth

rates is impossible without increasing the volume and quality of investments (primarily in

the non-petroleum sector of the economy). In turn, attracting investments presupposes

the formation of a diversified economy with predominance of high-tech industries in

its structure, which would allow Russia to accumulate know-how and export complex

products requiring high level of human capital in the future, thereby improving the

country’s competitiveness in global markets. A qualitative change in the investment

structure requires favorable investment climate and conditions for competition, effective

state management etc. Thus, the implementation of the entire set of measures mentioned

above will ensure a dynamic and balanced development of the Russian economy and,

therefore, sustainable long-term growth.

Keywords: economic policy, economic growth, demography, total factor productivity,

investment, infrastructure.

JEL: E60, E61, O10, O20, O40.

Maxim S. Oreshkin - Minister. Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (1/3, 1-ya Tverskaya-Yamskaya ul., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

Continuous attempts to strengthen the trade law aimed at restoring the “balance of market

power” in retailer-supplier relationships led to the adoption of new amendments to this

law in 2016. New series of inspections have been initiated by the Federal Antimonopoly

Service since the beginning of 2017. For regulatory impact assessment, empirical data

were collected from three standardized surveys of retail chain managers and suppliers in

five Russia’s cities with developed retailing (Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Ekaterinburg,

Novosibirsk, and Tyumen) in 2010, 2013 and 2016. Similar methods of data collection

were used. Overall, data were collected from 2,039 managers in the grocery and nonfood

sectors with equal representation of retailers and suppliers. Regarding the main

findings, the author argues that the expected improvement of contractual relations

and vertical restraints had not been achieved in the grocery sector by the end of 2016.

Contractual terms and conditions did not become easier for the suppliers. Contrary

to expectations, there are no significant differences between grocery and non-food

sectors. However, cumulative effects of the law enactment have led to a progressive

differentiation of estimates. Retailers’ estimates remained more stable, whereas suppliers’

estimates became more pessimistic, which is particularly true for large suppliers. A new

precedent model of governance using the liberal rhetoric of competition protection was

implemented to justify state intervention in interfirm contractual relations.

Key words: retailing, contractual practices, trade law, regulatory impact assessment.

JEL: P23, P31, Z13.

Vadim V. Radaev - Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Laboratory for Studies in Economic Sociology, National Research University Higher School of Economics (20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The article deals with a wide range of issues related to the execution of contracts intended

to meet state and municipal needs. The paper analyzes the key factors influencing the

execution of a contract at various stages of the procurement process. Procurement

risks are divided into four groups, which correspond to pre-contract preparation, the

procurement procedure, post-contractual relations and the competence of the parties

in the context of constantly changing legislation. In order to identify the proportion

of ineffective purchases, an analysis of quantitative indicators for canceled contracts

and accrued penalties was made. To describe the process of interaction between the parties

at the stage of contract execution, a general model of post-contract opportunism

is constructed. The applicability of said model in the field of public procurement is

examined to assess the level of the supplier’s efforts to ensure the proper quality of

execution of obligations, taking into account suppliers’ costs and possible sanctions

from the customer. The analysis of these sanctions, provided for by Russian legislation,

indicates mainly the use of punitive measures against the opportunist performer, applied

after the discovery of the corresponding violation. The article considers three main

types of contracts used in international practice: the fixed-price contract, the costreimbursement

contract, and the incentive contract; the advantages and disadvantages

of each of them are indicated. In conclusion of the article, a set of tools and methods to

counteract opportunist execution of the contracts is presented, and a summary of the

study results is given.

Keywords: contract, contract system, public procurement, contract performance, postcontractual

opportunism.

JEL: G38, H57, K12.

Ekaterina E. Makovleva - Direction in Development Department, JSC Sberbank-AST (12–9, Bol’shoy Savvinskiy per., Moscow, 119435, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

It is important to establish flexible, effective and valid monitoring of regional management

teams’ (RMT) activities in the sphere of investment climate improvement. The subjects

of this article are the methodology and technique of RMT activity monitoring and

control by means of target models of regulation and law enforcement (target models).

The analysis of methodological and methodical bases of target models is carried out.

The experience of target model realization in 2017 is investigated. Capabilities and

restrictions of target models as instruments of regional management monitoring are

estimated. The analysis of target model realization based on the ratio of the “complexity

of actions” and “volume of capital expenses” criteria has helped distinguish four groups

of models: simple and inexpensive; difficult and inexpensive; simple and expensive;

difficult and expensive. For each group of models, the main risks of non-execution are

revealed. On this basis, recommendations concerning further validation of target models

in the following directions are developed: digitalization of regional documentation;

providing regional subteams and local governments with means of communication;

training of municipal employees in competencies of project management; increasing the

involvement of profile federal executive authorities, resource supplying organizations,

and banks; development and deployment of technical regulations. The above helped

formulate the hypothesis that target models can be used as the mechanism of RMT

effectiveness monitoring in territorial subjects of the Russian Federation regardless of

the region’s social and economic conditions. Target models can be considered as the

instrument of monitoring and controlling efforts of authorities at all levels in the sphere

of regional investment climate improvement in Russia.

Keywords: regional economy, investment attraction, entrepreneurial climate,

competitiveness of regions, investment climate monitoring, effective government

management of the region.

JEL: R10.

Andrey S. Nikitin - Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Governor, Novgorod Region (1, Pobedy-Sofiyskaya pl., Veliky Novgorod, 173007, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

Modern customs control in Russia, despite the efforts at its optimization, retains a large

number of problems. Long terms of cargo registration, the complexity of procedures,

and the extensive amount of documents and information provided increase the costs of

business and lead to higher prices. Information disunity of the customs and tax services

preserves loopholes for using numerous schemes for evading customs and tax payments.

The existing program documents for customs focus on gradual improvements in customs

administration and keep the underlying technologies and business processes unchanged,

thus preserving the main problems. In this article, based on the analysis, the authors

propose a system of measures for improving customs administration in Russia, aimed

at increasing the efficiency of its business processes and taking into account the best

practices in the field of customs, recommendations of the World Customs Organization

and other international bodies, as well as new opportunities for state control organization

(supervision) in connection with the widespread introduction of information technologies.

The changes proposed by the authors provide for the separation of fiscal and

non-fiscal control functions and the redistribution of functions among controlling

(overseeing) authorities, transferring control over the correctness of customs payments

to stages before goods are imported and after their release for domestic consumption,

as well as other key changes in business processes of customs administration. It appears

that the proposed model of customs administration will improve the efficiency of exportimport

transaction control and the collection of customs payments, while simplifying,

speeding up and cheapening administrative procedures.

Keywords: foreign economic activity, customs regulation, reform, fiscal function, financial

guarantees, risk management system, single window.

JEL: F01, F02, F13

Galina V. Balandina - Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84/9, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Yuriy Yu. Ponomarev - Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84/9, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 19571, Russian Federation); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (str. 1, 3–5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).

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Sergey G. Sinelnikov-Murylev - Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Rector. Russian Foreign Trade Academy (4а, Pudovkina ul., Moscow, 119285, Russian Federation); Vice-Rector. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84/9, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Andrey V. Tochin - Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84/9, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

In the paper, an attempt is made to take into account the asymmetric reaction of the Bank

of Russia to the positive and negative shocks of external economic conditions during the

period from January 1999 to October 2014. For this, a nonlinear cointegrating regression

with the real exchange rate and real oil prices is modeled using the threshold vector error

correction model (TVECM). In the first step, we test for cointegration between the time

series of the real exchange rate and real oil prices (in logs). Next, we estimate a threshold

error correction model, which consists of two regimes. The first regime takes place with

an increase in oil prices, at which the current real exchange rate is below its equilibrium

value and begins to appreciate. The second regime takes place when oil prices fall, at

which the real exchange rate turns out to be above the equilibrium exchange rate and

begins to depreciate. The real oil prices are assumed to be an exogenous variable. Unlike

existing approaches, regime switching is based on whether the real exchange rate in

the previous period exceeds its equilibrium value under the new economic conditions

with the changed oil prices in the current period. The estimation results indicate that

the real exchange rate in the managed exchange rate regime asymmetrically reacted to

different signs of shocks in oil prices (as a proxy for terms of trade). In other words, the

convergence of the real exchange rate to the equilibrium rate was faster when oil prices

fell than when they grew.

Keywords: real exchange rate, monetary policy, The Central Bank of Russia, threshold error

correction model, TVECM model.

JEL: С22, C51, E52, F41.

Anton A. Skrobotov - Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Nikita D. Fokin - Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

This paper contributes to the discussion on possibilities to reveal ex post moral hazard

in the Russian market for private health insurance. By ‘ex post’ we mean the period

when a health insurance contract is valid. Moral hazard implies risky behavior of a

respondent that increases health care utilization and/or decreases their incentives

to prevent an insured event. In our empirical estimates, we explore the uniqueness

of the Russian data that consists in the fact that many medical organizations provide

services to respondents insured by enterprises. Adverse selection is hardly possible

among such respondents. It gives us the possibility to observe ex post moral hazard,

simply controlling for ex ante moral hazard by the use of individual fixed effects in

panel data models. We use the RLMS-HSE data (2000–2015) for empirical estimates.

We consider doctor visits, tobacco and alcohol consumption, physical exercises, and

self-assessed health (SAH) as moral hazard indicators, estimating ordered choice

regression models for each of the dependent variables mentioned above. To avoid

inconsistency in estimates of parameters caused by the incidental parameter problem,

we use the Blow-Up and Cluster (BUC) estimator. The results show a statistically

significant increase in frequency of visits to the doctor and in alcohol consumption,

as well as a decrease in SAH during the period of insurance. These results could be

useful for insurance companies and could be accounted for in contracts for private

health insurance.

Keywords: moral hazard, health insurance, RLMS-HSE, panel data, ordered choice models.

JEL: I130, C250.

Andrey V. Aistov - Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Associate Professor. International Centre for Health Economics, Management, and Policy, National Research University Higher School of Economics (3A, Kantemirovskaya ul., Saint Petersburg, 194100, Russian Federation); National Research University Higher School of Economics (25/12, Bolshaya Pecherskaya ul., Nizhny Novgorod, 603155, Russian Federation).

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Ekaterina A. Aleksandrova - Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor. International Centre for Health Economics, Management, and Policy, National Research University Higher School of Economics (3A, Kantemirovskaya ul., Saint Petersburg, 194100, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

2018 marks the conventional starting point of the next Kondratiev cycle (the beginning

of the sixth technological wave); at the same time, the potential of growth is determined

in the first 15–20 years of a new wave. It is proved that normative per capita financing,

and the priorities of higher education development considered in the context of

the formed trend toward considerable reduction in state-funded places for Masters

programs in fields that are key from the point of view of “breakthrough” into the sixth

technological wave do not promote the solution for the task of steady staff attraction

and retention for scientific and technological development of Russia. Modernization of

higher education has to be based on legislative regulation of educational and research

activities (regulation of maximum teaching loads as well as afternoon and evening

standards), which assumes a change of approach to financing which would ensure:

(a) basic financing of educational programs taking into account labor input of their

implementation; (b) stimulation of creation of breakthrough social and technological

innovations at higher education institutions. This paper sets out proposals to increase

efficiency of financial interaction between higher education institutions and business

for the purpose of resolving the contradiction between formation and financing of state

orders for training by the state and lack of financial and substantial participation of

business in this process.

Keywords: sixth technological wave, higher education, normative per capita financing.

JEL: I22, O15.

Evgeny V. Romanov - Dr. Sci. (Pedag.), Professor. Nosov Magnitogorsk State Technical University (24, Lenina pr., Magnitogorsk, 455000, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

In this paper, we make a detailed description of a network method which we then use

to calculate a new ranking that measures the export complexity of Russian regions.

Even though this ranking directly measures the complexity of regional export baskets,

indirectly it also reflects other features of regional economies, as the ability to supply

goods to international markets results from the availability of different capabilities in

a particular region, such as know-how, equipment, infrastructure etc. At the

same time, the calculation of the ranking does not require a lot of various data, as

well as constructing numerous variables characterizing different aspects of regional

development. The method which is discussed in this paper has several important

advantages over a number of alternative regional rankings. In particular, the latter

employ the assumption of substitutability among various factors that are taken into

account when these rankings are calculated. However, this assumption is often too

strong. Moreover, these rankings are not based on any well-defined theoretical structure,

and the choice of variables which are used to calculate these rankings is not explicitly

explained. In contrast, the method which is discussed in this paper has a well-defined

theoretical structure and uses no strong assumptions. At the same time, the resulting

ranking is strongly correlated with other regional rankings, which indicates that the

former also contains a significant share of information present in the latter, which

emphasizes again the ability of the new ranking to capture different important features

of regional development.

Keywords: regional development, export complexity, network theory, centrality.

JEL: O100, O140, O180, F10, F14.

Ivan L. Lyubimov - PhD (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, str. 1, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Maria A. Lysyuk. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, str. 1, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Margarita V. Gvozdeva - Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, str. 1, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The paper discusses the reasons for the stabilization of global CO2 emissions from

fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. The decrease in emissions cannot

be explained by economic reasons. Interannual temperature variations do not have

a strong impact on the global dynamics of CO2, because energy consumption for

air conditioning and heating in the world almost neutralize each other. Stabilizing

emissions does not mean that they will go down — it is more likely that global emissions

will be around the same level until 2030. Thus, the assessment of global dynamics

according to the 3°C pathway (based on the country’s current national goals — INDC/

NDC) remains valid. The active process of replacement of coal with gas, renewables

and nuclear generation in China and the United States is the main reason of this

stabilization. The decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions is already

clearly demonstrated across the world, except some underdeveloped countries, despite

the fact that a definite correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions

is expected to be observed for a long time. Obviously, decoupling for developing

countries is still far away. It is too early to judge the global dynamics of emissions after

2030, but with some confidence we can say that until 2030, international payments

for emissions will most likely not be introduced. The situation will depend both on

climate change risks and possible damage caused by the consequences of climate

change for the largest countries, and on the economic parameters of the use of various

energy sources.

Keywords: climate policy, UN Paris Agreement on Climate, greenhouse gas emissions,

adaptation to climate change.

JEL: Q54, Q58, Q47.

Alexey O. Kokorin - Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.). World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF Russia) (19, str. 3, Nikoloyamskaya ul., Moscow, 109240, Russian Federation).

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Vladimir Yu. Potashnikov - Institute for Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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