Results of the analysis of long-term forecasts of scientific and technological development of Russia reveal the risk of inefficiency in public investment for significant part of the selected scientific and technological priorities. The article analyzes the typical risks of implementing of recently approved long-term development priorities of Russian applied science and provides recommendations to improve the methodology of scientific and technological forecasting.
Key words: science and technology, technological forecasting, scientometrics.

Natalia Kurakova¹, Dr. Sci. (Bio.), director.
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Vladimir Zinov¹, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Cand. Sci.(Tech.), professor, deputy director.
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Vladimir Komarov², Cand. Sci. (Econ.), head.
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Pavel Pavlov², senior research fellow.
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1 Centre for Scientific and Technological Expertise.
² Laboratory of Knowledge Economy.
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

The First World War required reconstruction of traditional methods of the economy management. There is an attempt in the article to analyze the problem of engaging the entrepreneurial organizations to help the government in modernization of the economy. Absence of the regulated relationships between the government and entrepreneurial society, aspiration to independently resolve the issues of reconstruction of the economic mechanism, inconsistency of the state with respect to the industry entrepreneurial congresses, which resulted in suspending their activity, especially during the initial period of war, prevented from realizing the full potential of these representative organizations.
Key words: First World War, industry entrepreneurial congresses, reconstruction of economic mechanism, special meetings, military-industrial committees.

Alexander Bessolitsyn, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, deputy head of the Department of economic history,
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82 bldg. 1, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
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Working definitions of industrial and competition policy are suggested. Ways of two directions of economic policy interaction are discussed. It has been demonstrated advantages and constraints of industrial and competition policy related to its complementarity. The concept of the resources abundance from the perspective of mechanisms of governance has been presented. Approaches to building industrial policy have been formulated within the framework of studies principles adopted in the New Institutional Economics and with taking into account empirical researches of industrial policy results.
Key words: Austrian economics, antimonopoly law, competition, competition policy, resources abundance, the new institutional economics, mechanisms of governance, Pigouvianism, industrial policy, economic regulation.

Andrei Shastitko, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, Economic Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State University;
Competition and Economic Regulation Research Center, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy
and Public Administration (82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
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The paper reveals the influence of vertical integration on the performance of companies in emerging markets, calculated as Lerner index. The model was developed to estimate the impact of vertically integrated companies, as well as in case of disintegration. The empirical correlation of profitability of companies from BRIC and the factors defining it in case of vertical integration was investigated, which was tested on the data for 2004—2012. Key significant factors in a cut of branches and the countries from BRIC are defined. The study will help to understand whether there is a trend towards diminishing dependency of the efficiency of companies' performance from the high rate of vertical integration in the emerging capital markets and whether the economy of developing countries is ready to create competitive market conditions with a lot of independent companies in the industries where currently prevails oligopoly. The results of this work will allow companies' management choose the optimal way of development in the context of possible vertical integration or disintegration transactions in a particular industry. Current research was motivated by trend towards disintegration with the creation of several competitive niche companies instead of one large in developed capital markets. At the same time, the evidences of effectiveness of both independent companies and vertically integrated giants in the industry are stated. To find out which strategy is more effective, this paper analyzes the influence of the vertical integration degree on the efficiency of companies' performance.
Key words: company's strategy, value added, price volatility, degree of vertical integration, disintegration.

Victoria Cherkasova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), associate professor of chair of economics and finance of enterprise,
researcher of corporate finance center, National Research University Higher School of Economics
(26 bld 3, Shabolovka ul., Moscow, 119049, Russian Federation).
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Dmitry Mochalov, Ma. Sci. (Econ.), senior economist of economic development department, LLC "Gas-Oil"
(10-B, Nametkina ul., Moscow, 117420, Russian Federation).
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Elizaveta Cherkasova, Ma. Sci. (Finance), head of financial planning department, LUKOIL Lubricants Company International (6, Malaya Yakimanka ul., Moscow, 119180, Russian Federation).
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The paper investigates the interaction between the economic theory and the antitrust law. It argues that the widespread belief that theoretical analysis played a crucial role in the regulation norms evolution sometimes is not "history friendly". The paper focuses on the regulation of vertical restraints. It contains a comparative time analysis of the key US antitrust cases concerning the vertical restraints and the new economic theories through the lens of incentives for so called "cooperative" specific investments. It shows that intention to maintain these incentives was the important factor caused the courts' decisions, which in turn inspired the subsequent developments of economic theory. Considering the vertical restrictions as an instrument of risk sharing when the partners' specific investments are highly asymmetric opens the new possibilities for further improvement of the regulatory framework governing the vertical agreements.
Key words: antitrust, vertical restraints, cooperative specific investments, antitrust cases.

Maria Agamirova, lecturer.
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Natalia Dzagourova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), associate professor.
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National Research University Higher School of Economics
(20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation)

This article is the part of a series of articles that introduce new approach to old age pension calculation (new pension formula). The Russian Federation is going to start using the new pension formula in 2015. The first article of the series (Economic Policy. 2014. No 2. P. 85—98) was devoted to debunking the myth about simplicity of old age pension calculation with the analysis of the formation of pension rights in the distributing PAYG pension system. In this article the analysis of the current approach to old age pension calculation was conducted, weak points of this approach were discovered, the necessity of new pension formula development was proved, basic concepts of the new pension formula were determined.
Key words: pension formula, pension reform, insurance part of pension, fixed base size of pension, estimated pension wealth, PAYG pension system.

Yury Gorlin, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), deputy director, Institute for social analysis­ and ­prediction,
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(11, Prechistenskaya nab., Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation).
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The main results of 2013, the trend of economic development of Russia in 2014 and provides forecasts of economic indicators for 2015. Evaluated various options for economic development, government agencies and submitted by the authors calculated. A comparison of the dynamics of the Russian economy, developed and developing countries. The analysis of the current situation and investigate the reason for delaying the stagnant period. The factors contributing to the growth of the Russian economy.
Key words: economy, trends, dynamics, growth, production, macro-economic indicators forecast.

Alexander Frenkel, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, head.
Yakov Sergienko, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, senior research fellow.
Natalia Raiskaya, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), senior research fellow.
Anna Lobzova, senior programmer.

Center of Applied Economic Analysis and Forecasting, Institute of Economy, RAS
(32, Nakhimovskiy prosp., Moscow, 117218, Russian Federation).
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The article deals with the current model of inter-budgetary relations in Russia. The author tries to compare this model with the German one, which has been developing for more than 150 years. The matching reveals weaknesses and shortcomings of Russian model. The main problem is not in the lack of the revenue authority that was delegated to regions, but in the low level of their economic development and in the absence of the incentives for solving this problem. The author suggests to improve inter-budgetary relations in Russia by increasing the efficiency of using of funds of the state, raising regions' interest in the development of their tax base. These measures can also help to reduce high level of corruption.
Key words: cooperative model of inter-budgetary relations, tax revenues, inter-budgetary transfers, asymmetry of regions.

Margarita Khugaeva, main specialist-expert of Property relations department, Minisrty of Defence of the Russian Federation (19, Znamenka ul., Moscow, 119160, Russian Federation).
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The special attention in the article is paid to reasons blocking the innovative development of the Russian economy. The author also studies logic and the results of the reforms in higher education, science and material production. It is noted in the work that due to mismatched reforming of these links of the national economy and imperfect institutional infrastructure the innovation sector is developing very slowly. One of the most fundamental sectors of the innovation economy is a system of higher education, so a special emphasis is made on the study of the problems to improve the quality of graduates, the elimination of disparities in high school, reducing the risks of unemployment among workers and college graduates. This work is aimed at finding approaches to overcome the fragmentation of education, science and the real economy and the development of proposals to form the broad outlines of the institutional infrastructure, market mechanisms of integration, cooperation and coordination of key parts of the innovation economy. The main research method is a comprehensive and systematic approach to analyzing and solving actual problems, to ensure that the qualitative changes in the structure of the national economy. The arguments and recommendations contained in the article are based on statistical data and expert assessment, logic of cause and effect of previous decisions in terms of their effectiveness and impact is taken into account, and the dependence on the distance covered is considered as well. In the course of the study and at the end proposals and recommendations aimed at improvement of reforms are formulated.
Key words: innovative economy, higher education, science, manufacturing, infrastructure integration.

Alexey Alpatov, Cand. Sci. (Law), associate professor, Department of Philosophy, History and Law,
Federal State-Funded Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation" (49, Leningradsky Prosp., Moscow, Russia, 125993, GSP-3).
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The article looks into the nature of culture and applicability of culture-centered paradigm for explanation of economic behavior and development. The author challenges the concept of cultural relativism, which advocates the idea of equivalence and harmonicity of all cultures. Due to the above stated, some examples of different countries, national and religious communities are sited to illustrate the difference between efficiency and inefficiency of cultural values. The author justifies the necessity to shape modern moral mindsets in Russian society on the basis of them being vital to the progressive development both in economy and society. The emphasis is put on the well-known limitation of the homo economicus model, as well as on the expansion of the economics object field by taking into account non-economic factors and decision making motives of economic subjects.
Key words: institute, cultural determinism, cultural relativism, new institutionalism, transaction costs, homo institutionalis, homo economicus.

Stanislav Ivaskovsky, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), associate professor, head of the department of economics in Moscow State Institute (University) of International Relations under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (76, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119454, Russian Federation).
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This article deals with the development and transformation of the system of agricultural land use under contemporary conditions. The current system of land use in a changing environment national and international food market, requires immediate change. This fully applies to the system of land use and the overall development of the agrarian complex of the Baikal region. In conditions of a sharp increase in food demand from rapidly developing countries of Asia Pacific region, requires a rapid restructuring of the regional system of agrarian land tenure with a view to its satisfaction. This will go not only one of the largest regional food markets in the world, but will significantly increase competitiveness of agrarian sector of the Baikal region. The analysis of the existing system of land use and the history of its formation on the basis of which the author proposes some measures to improve its effectiveness based on the experience of agrarian land in Siberia pre-revolutionary period, a common mechanism of development of individual farms taking into account geographic, natural and economic conditions. Due to the vastness of the Baikal region and the highly unequal distribution of the population and, as consequence, not full use of its potential, to create new conditions for development of individual agricultural enterprises, remote from the main regional centers. Such a mechanism could be the introduction of a regional system of allocation of agricultural land for development on them agrarian farms commercial type. It will allow to integrate regional agricultural complex in the world economy and increase its competitiveness.
Key words: economy of the Baikal region, agricultural land use, regional economy, peasant, farm.

Mikhail Bagaynikov, Cand. Sci. (Econ), associated professor, Baikal State University of Economics and Law
(11, Lenina ul., 664003, Russian Federation).
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