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Archive / 2011

Download No 6, 2011
No 6

The World Bank: Research And Estimates

The World Bank in Russia
Russian Economic Report No 26 (Growing Risks)
The risks to the global economy are growing and so are risks to Russia’s growth. Russia’s short-term economic and fiscal situation remains favorable because of high oil prices with an almost balanced budget this year. But the balance of macroeconomic risks has shifted toward an uncertain growth path as inflation pressures subside and external risks rise sharply. The large non-oil fiscal deficit requires concerted medium-term fiscal adjustment to reduce vulnerability in the face of new shocks, to replenish fiscal buffers, and to move toward a longer-term sustainable level of non-oil deficits.
Key words: Russia’s economy, economic growth, macroeconomic risks, balanced budget.

The World Bank in Russia (36 bldg. 1, Bolshaya Molchanovka ul., Moscow, 121069, Russian Federation).

Economic Policy


Inflationary Expectations of Economic Agents in Russia
The purpose of this study is to systematize the basic methods for determining inflation expectations, as well as quantification of inflationary expectations of economic agents with Russian view of the interactions and interdependencies that arise during the formation of expectations. The analysis is based on existing theoretical concepts presented by the author systematization of inflation expectations. In particular, it was found that rational economic agents in Russia tend to make decisions about the forecast of inflation based on its previous values, so their expectations are quasi-adaptive character. The analysis also showed that, in order to increase the pressure on the inflation expectations of economic agents to public authorities of the Russian Federation to form the published inflation forecasts in the light of forecasts of consolidated departments and agencies. In this regard, in authors opinion, apart from a single static base available to each public authority must establish an appropriate legal basis for functional interaction of state bodies involved in the conduct of monetary policy. These results indicate the possibility of public authorities of the Russian Federation to influence the magnitude of inflationary expectations of economic agents.
Keywords: Inflationary expectations, forecasts of inflation, inflation, the CPI.

Anna Loleyt, Bank of Russia; Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University
(1 bldg. 46, Leninskiye Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation).



Credit Reform of 1930s and Its Consequences (For the History of Soviet Monetary System)
The рареr presents a sequel of events which have formed the money system of the Soviet Union after the Credit Reform of 1930. The result of these reforms was creation of money system adapted to the political constraints of the communist rule. The money system with two circles of circulation and two main kinds of moneys: cash and bank — was consistent with socio-economic and politic realities of the time and place. The mode of putting money income into the closed cash flaw circulation had let the ruling regime to build the heavy and weapon industry. The changes connected to the rising welfare of population after the economic reforms of the sixties («Kosygin reforms») gave way to the deficiencies of this money system. It turned to be a prey of the shadow economy. It encountered with the problem of rising cash balances of the population. The stream of cash savings went into the shadow economy destabilizing the money system and leading in the late eighties to the cute inflation crisis and collapse of main money functions.
Key words: money system of the Soviet Union; two circles of circulation, cash money, bank account money; the shadow economy; the cash balances.

Yuri Kochevrin, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Institute of World Economy And International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (23, Profsoyuznaya ul., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation).
Nobel Prize in Economics
Christopher A. SIMS
Macroeconomics and Reality
This paper considers the arguments of critics of the econometric analysis of macroeconomic processes. Large-scale models, despite their failure actually perform useful functions forecasting and policy analysis, the restrictions imposed in current method of model identification, are not important to build a model that can perform these functions, but completely harmless. Everyone can create an alternative method of model identification that would be more practical.
Key words: econometric analysis, macroeconomic processes, model identification.

Christopher A. Sims, professor, Princeton University (USA).
Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator
This paper describes two models of an agency that is collecting and reporting observations on a dynamical linear stochastic economy. The first is a «classical» model, with the agency reporting data that are the sum of a vector of «true» variables and a vector of measurement errors that are orthogonal to the true variables. The second is a model of an agency that uses an optimal filtering method to construct least-squares estimates of the true variables. These two models of the reporting agency imply different likelihood functions. A model of the investment accelerator is used as an example to illustrate the differing implications of the models.
Key words: investment accelerator, two models of the reporting agency, true variables, linear stochastic economy.

Thomas J. Sargent, Hoover Institute; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (USA).

Analytics and Forecast

Optimal Consumer Choices under Conditions of Sequential Search
This paper describes the static model of consumption-leisure choice in which both the maximization of utility and the maximization of precautionary savings for sequential purchases are constrained by the equality of the marginal costs of search to their marginal benefits. The marginal rate of substitution of leisure for consumption appears in the specific form, which updates the Cobb-Douglas utility function and provides search behavior with the optimal stopping rule. This rule bridges the gap between the neoclassical explanation of search behavior and the search-satisficing concept. The original arrangements of polar models of behavior, the overconsumption effect, the Veblen effect, and Protestant work ethics complete the presentation of the model.
Key words: consumption, leisure, propensity to search, reserve for purchases.

Sergey Malakhov, Ph.D. (Econ.), Pierre Mendès-France University (Grenoble,  France).

Economic Policy and Health Care

Basic Propositions for the Strategy of Sustainable Development of the Russian
Pharmaceutical Industry
The paper is devoted to analyzing of goals, objectives and implementation of public programs for development of the Russian pharmaceutical industry. The concept of sustainable development of the pharmaceutical branch is considered and the basic provisions of the strategy for sustainable development of the Russian pharmaceutical industry in the medium term is justified.
Key words: pharmaceutical branch, sustainable development, medicines, innovations.

Aleksey Balashov, Department of Financial Markets and Financial Management, St. Petersburg Branch
of the National Research University — Higher School of Economics
(55 Bldg. 2, ul. Sedova, St. Petersburg, 193171, Russian Federation).

Regional Economic Policy

Model of Socio-Economic Development of Urban Agglomerations in Russia
The paper analyzes the existing models of development management of urban agglomerations in terms of the possibility of using them in Russia, outlines broad principles of development control model of urban agglomerations, and the proposed model itself. Describes the tasks and functions of the executive branch of federal, regional and municipal levels, as well as the need for a collective (associative) controls.
Keywords: urban agglomeration, management development, regional development.

Natalya Trunova, Saint Petersburg State University of Economics and Finance
(21, Sadovaya ul., St. Petersburg, 191023, Russian Federation).

Case Study

The Credit Institution’s Value within M&A Deals Basing on Value’s Factors Rating
The cost of property in Russia during the activation of innovative driving forces of industries, including banking, largely depends on the quality of expert judgments and conclusions. Assessment of cost factors of the credit institution in this context is of particular importance. This article presents a methodical approach to formation of the bank’s value.
Keywords: credit Institution’s value, merger&acquisition (M&A) deal, synergy effect, coefficient of synergy, predictive and post-forecast periods.

Vera Maksimova,  Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Siberian Academy of Finance and Banking
(7, ul. Polzunova, Novosibirsk, 630051, Russian Federation).
Business Continuity Management as a Basis of Enterprise Economic Security
According to the authors, the majority of Russian companies are operating in the possible impact of man-made and natural disasters. To minimize the negative impact of disasters on the company it must use a set of planning to ensure business continuity. The company must implement a process of continuous plan improvement to ensure business continuity, to adequately respond to constantly changing internal and external environment.
Key words: enterprise economic security, man-made and natural disasters, business continuity.

Damir Kunafeev, Company "Empire-Decor" (Moscow).
Kirill Pitelinsky, Cand. Sci. (Tech.), Moscow Open Social Academy
(152, bldg. 2, Profsoyuznaya ul., Moscow, 117321, Russian Federation )



Contents of the Journal 2011 206—208